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US consumers keep inflation outlook at 3.9% as unemployment concerns rise
November 9, 2026. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that median one-year inflation expectations remained at 3.9% in October. Three- and five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
The average probability respondents assigned to a higher unemployment rate one year ahead rose to 45.3%, its highest level since April 2020. At the same time, the perceived chance of finding a job after losing one’s current position improved. The survey was conducted from October 1 to October 31.
Why it matters
Expectations inform spending and wage negotiations and offer a complementary signal of how households perceive inflation and employment.
Rockstar Briefing editorial analysis
The survey measures perceptions, not guaranteed forecasts or actual unemployment. A deterioration in one labor-market expectation alongside an improvement in another cautions against a simple conclusion about where employment will go next.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, November 9, 2026. AI-generated illustration.
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